The 4×4 survival map
Moat depth × LLM KILL-ZONE RISK
No LLM overlap
Low overlap
High overlap
Direct overlap
Fortress
Row 01
Audacious Moonshots
SpaceX · Anduril · Varda · Hadrian
AI Roll-Ups
Longlake · Crescendo · AGI · Cabana · Thrive Holdings
AI Services
Crosby · Camber Health · Hanover Park · EvenUp
Horizontal AI Routing
Genspark · Perplexity
Strong moat
Row 02
Robotics
Figure · 1X · physical-world moat
Vertical Systems of Record (w/ Proprietary Data)
Procore · ServiceTitan · Veeva · Toast
Horizontal Finance
Stripe · Adyen · Brex · Ramp
Horizontal CRMs
Salesforce · HubSpot
Thin moat
Row 03
Legacy White-Collar Services Giants
McKinsey · Deloitte · EY · KPMG · BCG
Horizontal Point Solutions
DocuSign · Dropbox · Box
Vertical-Specific GPTs
Open Evidence · Harvey · MagicSchool · GC AI
Horizontal Voice
Wispr · and others like it
Exposed
Row 04
Vertical Point Solutions
Vertical BI · Vertical marketing · Vertical Data Connectors
Horizontal Productivity Suites
Notion · Monday · ClickUp · Asana
Horizontal Design Tools
Figma · Canva
Horizontal Content Generation
Jasper · Copy.ai · Writer
Impregnable
FORTIFIED, INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO KILL
Safe zone
Real moat, but not bulletproof
Risky
Exposed if the model companies want it
Kill zone
The labs will eat you